Tape MACD indicator for Metatrader 5

November 6, 2009

This is a “tape like” MACD. The difference between the MACD and the signal line is plotted as a tape instead of plotting two separate lines. You can customize the MACD variables and the colors.

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence and measures the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Read more about it here: Color MACD for Metatrader 5

Tape MACD indicator for Metatrader 5

The most popular formula for the MACD indicator are the 26-day and 12-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Download
(Indicator was originally posted here)

Advertisements

Wave analysis for major currencies 6 november

November 6, 2009

Wave Analysis EUR/USD Outlook EUR/USD – 1.4822
As euro has fallen after the early strong rebound from this week’s low at 1.4626 to 1.4910, consolidation with downside bias is seen for at least a correction to 1.4770/80 and then towards 1.4734/39, however, break is and needed for resumption of the decline from last week’s 14-month high at 1.5064 for re-test of 1.4626 later. above1.4910 would bring marginal gain towards 1.4928 but only breach of 1.5064 would confirm medium term uptrend from 1.2329 (’08 low) has resumed, 1.5200. To recap our bullish count on euro as follows: the major correction with (A):1.6040-1.3882, (B):1.4867 and (C) has ended at 1.2329. The rise from there to 1.4720 is treated as (1) of (I) with (2) being contained at 1.2457, current rally is wave (3), subdivided into 1:1.2457-1.3739; 2:1.2885 and 3 is in progress. Recent series of higher lows and higher highs suggests further gain towards 1.5285/03 (previous daily support levels, and ow res) is seen but above there is and needed for eventual re-test of above mentioned record high of 1.6040. Only a breach of 1.4480 would signal wave 3 top is made, bring correction in wave 4 to 1.4177 and then towards 1.4007.

Wave Analysis Outlook GBP/USD – 1.6580
Despite cable’s strong rebound from October’s 4-1/2 month low of 1.5708 to 1.6694, subsequent selloff to 1.6251 on active cross selling in GBP after the release of worse-than-expected U.K. GDP data signals further choppy trading inside the established range of 1.5708-1.7044 would continue. Below 1.6240 brings weakness to 1.5920 but breach of 1.5708 and needed to yield stronger correction of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.5690 and possibly towards 1.5272 (50% r). Our preferred count is that the wave iv from 1.3500 is labelled as A: 1.3500- 1.4986, B: 1.3655 and wave C remains in progress. To re-cap, the [C] wave from 1.3682 ended at 2.1162 and major correction is under way with A-leg: 2.1162- 1.9337, B-leg has ended at 2.0162 in July (short c-leg) and C-leg is an impulsive move with 1: 1.7445, 2: 1.8672, wave 3 is labelled as i: 2.0162-1.1.7445 , ii: 1.8672 and iii: 1.3500 and wave iv from there has either ended at 1.7044 or would extend to 1.7157 before prospect of a wave v decline later. On the upside, above 1.6694 would indicate the correction from 1.7044 has ended at 1.5708 and breach of 1.6742 would confirm medium term rise from 1.3500 has resumed, 1.7044.

Wave Analysis USD/JPY Outlook – 90.38
Despite early selloff to 89.18, USD strong rebound from there suggests further choppy trading above last month’s low at 88.01 is seen with upside bias and above 90.71 would extend to 91.20/30 but a breach of previous resistance at 91.63 is and needed to signal another leg of upmove from 88.01 is under way for a re-test of 92.33 and then towards 93.31. Only below pivotal support at 88.83 would indicate the correction from 88.01 has ended and bring resumption of (E) leg decline from this year’s high of 101.45 (April ’09) for re-test of 87.10 (Jan ’09 low). Our bearish count indicates that 2nd C wave from 124.14 remains in progress and is possibly unfolding as a diagonal triangle with (A): 95.77, (B): 110.67, (C): 87.10, (D) has possibly ended at 101.45 and (E) leg decline is under way. Looking at the bigger picture, the wave [B] from 147.64 (1998 top) is a double-three sub-divided into 1st A-B-C: 147.64-101.25, X: 135.20 and the 2nd A-B -C is unfolding as follows: 2nd A: 101.67, 2nd B: 124.14 and 2nd C-leg from 124.14 extends to 85.00 but 82.30 (equality projection of 124.56-95.77 from 110.67) would hold.

Wave Analysis USD/CHF – 1.0170
Despite USD rebound after early fall to fresh 09′ low of 1.0033 last week, as long as 1.0454 resistance holds, downside bias remains for medium term downtrend from 1.2298 (Nov ’08) to resume and bring weakness towards 1.0011 where a daily close below there would extend wave (3) of V (see below) towards ’08 record low at 0.9630. On the upside, above 1.0454 would bring stronger retracement to 1.0529 (previous sup) and later towards 1.0590 but 1.0700/08 resistance area would remain intact. We are treating the fall from 1.2298 as wave (3), sub-divided into 1: 1.2298-1.0370, 2: 1.1969 and wave 3 itself is still unfolding and would head to aforesaid downside obj. To re-cap, the LT downtrend from 1.8310 is labelled as: I: 1.8310-1.5900, II: 1.8222, 3 of III: 1.2140, 4 of III: 1.3230 and 5 of III ended at 1.1285 in 2004 and wave IV has indeed ended at 1.3286 (Nov ’05). The wave (1) of V has ended at 0.9630 and wave (2) of V is sub-divided as follows: a: 0.9630-1.0625, b: 1.1011 and c: 1.2298. Wave (3) of V is and ow under way with 1st leg of this move: 1.2298-1.0370, 2nd leg has ended at 1.1969 and decline from there would bring eventual re-test of ’08 record low at 0.9630.


Color MACD for Metatrader 5

November 3, 2009

MACD for Metatrader 5

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence and measures the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). It is a very popular technical analysis indicator that is widely used in many forex trading strategies because it provides reliable signals of trend changes The most popular formula for the “standard” MACD is the difference between a security’s 26-day and 12-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Color MACD for Metatrader 5 is much better than the standart one because you can customize the histogram colors.

Download (Indicator was originally posted here)


Wave analysis 3 November

November 3, 2009

Wave Analysis EUR/USD Outlook:
EUR/USD – 1.4762. As euro’s decline from last week’s 14-month high at 1.5064 has resumed, suggesting downside bias remains for retracement of upmove to 1.4620/30 and  1.4550/60 but daily support at 1.4480 should hold from here, yield rebound.  above1.4860 would bring gain towards 1.4928 but break there is and needed to signal correction is over and  bring resumption of medium term uptrend from 1.2329 (’08 low) for re-test of 1.5049 1st, break extends to 1.5200/10 later. To recap our bullish count on euro as follows: the major correction with (A):1.6040-1.3882, (B):1.4867 and  (C) has ended at 1.2329. The rise from there to 1.4720 is treated as (1) of (I) with (2) being contained at 1.2457, current rally is wave (3), subdivided into 1:1.2457-1.3739; 2:1.2885 and  3 is in progress. Recent series of higher lows and  higher highs suggests further gain towards 1.5285/03 (prev. daily support levels, and ow res) is seen but above there is and needed for eventual re-test of above mentioned record high of 1.6040. Only a breach of 1.4480 would signal wave 3 top is made, bring correction in wave 4 to 1.4177 and  then towards 1.4007…
LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT:
Major [A][B][C] wave from 1.4577 (Sep 92) ended at 0.8228 (2000) and  an impulsive wave is labelled as (I):0.8228-0.9505, (II):0.8350, (III):1.3670 (1: 0.9335, 2:0.8563, 3:1.2930, 4:1.1760 and  5:1.3670) (IV):1.1640 and  (V):1.6040. Major correction has ended at 1.2329 and  another impulsive upmove in (I) is in force…

Wave Analysis GBP/USD Outlook:

GBP/USD – 1.6320. Despite cable’s strong rebound from October’s 4-1/2 month low of 1.5708 to 1.6694, subsequent selloff to 1.6251 on active cross selling in GBP after the release of worse-than-expected U.K. GDP data signals further choppy trading inside the established range of 1.5708-1.7044 would continue. Below 1.6240 brings weakness to 1.5920 but breach of 1.5708 and needed to yield stronger correction of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.5690 and  possibly twds 1.5272 (50% r). Our preferred count is that the wave iv from 1.3500 is labeled as A: 1.3500- 1.4986, B: 1.3655 and  wave C remains in progress. To re-cap, the [C] wave from 1.3682 ended at 2.1162 and  major correction is under way with A-leg: 2.1162- 1.9337, B-leg has ended at 2.0162 in July (short c-leg) and  C-leg is an impulsive move with 1: 1.7445, 2: 1.8672, wave 3 is labelled as i: 2.0162-1.1.7445 , ii: 1.8672 and  iii: 1.3500 and  wave iv from there has either ended at 1.7044 or would extend to 1.7157 before prospect of a wave v decline later. On the upside, above 1.6694 would indicate the correction from 1.7044 has ended at 1.5708 and  breach of 1.6742 would confirm medium term rise from 1.3500 has resumed, 1.7044.
LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT
Despite cable’s anticipated uptrend to 26-year high of 2.1162, the subsequent sharp selloff suggests the wave [C] from 1.3682 has ended at 2.1162 and  major correction of upmove from 1.3045 is in progress and  below 1.3500 would extend to 1.3150/60 but reckon support at 1.3045 should contain downside…

Wave Analysis USD/JPY Outlook:
USD/JPY – 90.05. Despite early selloff to 89.18, yesterdays strong rebound fmt here suggests further choppy trading above last month’s low at 88.01 is seen with upside bias and  above 90.71 would extend to 91.20/30 but breach of 91.63 is and needed to signal another leg of upmove from 88.01 is under way for re-test of 92.33 and  then towards 93.31. Only below pivotal support at 88.83 would indicate the correction from 88.01 has ended and  bring resumption of (E) leg decline from this year’s high of 101.45 (April ’09) for re-test of 87.10 (Jan ’09 low). Our bearish count indicates that 2nd C wave from 124.14 remains in progress and  is possibly unfolding as a diagonal triangle with (A): 95.77, (B): 110.67, (C): 87.10, (D) has possibly ended at 101.45 and  (E) leg decline is under way. Looking at the bigger picture, the wave [B] from 147.64 (1998 top) is a double-three sub-divided into 1st A-B-C: 147.64-101.25, X: 135.20 and  the 2nd A-B -C is unfolding as follows: 2nd A: 101.67, 2nd B: 124.14 and  2nd C-leg from 124.14 extends to 85.00 but 82.30 (equality proj. of 124.56-95.77 from 110.67) would hold.
LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT
[A][B][C] major correction is unfolding from 79.75 low with [A] leg ended at 147.64 and  the complex wave [B] should be limited to 85.00 and  yield another strong rebound in wave [C]. A daily close above 110.67 would suggest low is possibly made at 87.10 but above 114.66 and needed to confirm. Below 82.30 aborts, 79.75 again

Wave Analysis USD/CHF Outlook:
USD/CHF – 1.0318. Despite USD rebound after early fall to fresh 09′ low of 1.0033 last week, as long as 1.0454 resistance holds, downside bias remains for medium term downtrend from 1.2298 (Nov ’08) to resume and  bring weakness towards 1.0011 where a daily close below there would extend wave (3) of V (see below) twds ’08 record low at 0.9630. On the upside, above 1.0454 would bring stronger retracement to 1.0529 (prev. sup) and  later towards 1.0590 but 1.0700/08 resistance area would remain intact. We are treating the fall from 1.2298 as wave (3), sub-divided into 1: 1.2298-1.0370, 2: 1.1969 and  wave 3 itself is still unfolding and  would head to aforesaid downside obj. To re-cap, the LT downtrend from 1.8310 is labeled as: I: 1.8310-1.5900, II: 1.8222, 3 of III: 1.2140, 4 of III: 1.3230 and  5 of III ended at 1.1285 in 2004 and  wave IV has indeed ended at 1.3286 (Nov ’05). The wave (1) of V has ended at 0.9630 and  wave (2) of V is sub-divided as follows: a: 0.9630-1.0625, b: 1.1011 and  c: 1.2298. Wave (3) of V is and ow under way with 1st leg of this move: 1.2298-1.0370, 2nd leg has ended at 1.1969 and  decline from there would bring eventual re-test of ’08 record low at 0.9630.
LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT
The sell-off from 1.8310 signals wave (IV) from 1.1105 has ended with (A): 1.5468, (B):1.2750 and  (C):1.8310 and  impulsive wave (V) is unfolding with wave III ending earlier this year at 0.9630 (not at 1.1285) and  wave IV correction is under way but 1.3286 (prev. 4th of one lesser degree) should cap upside and  yield wave V…


Monthly Market Overview for November 2009

November 3, 2009

Medium Term EUR/USD Outlook – 1.4752
Despite last month’s expected resumption of medium term up-move, subsequent retreat from 1.5064 suggests a temporary top is made and weakness towards 1.4480 is likely, break would confirm uptrend from 1.2329 has ended and yield stronger retrace. to 1.4230. Only above 1.4968 would yield one more rise but ‘loss of momentum’ should prevent strong gain and reckon 1.5300/10 would cap upside, bring possible reversal in Dec.

Medium Term GBP/USD Outlook – 1.6470
Although cable’s strong retreat from 1.7044 confirms medium term rise from 09′ low at 1.3500 has made a top, subsequent sharp rebound from 1.5708 suggests ‘choppy’ trading is in store and above 1.6605 would risk re-test of 1.6694, break, 1.6850/60 before down. On the downside, below 1.6251 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.6000, a daily close there would encourage for a re-test of 1.5708 later.

Medium Term USD/JPY Outlook – 89.93
Dollars retreat from 92.33 suggests recovery from 88.01 has possibly ended there and below said support would confirm medium term downtrend has finally resumed, yield re-test of 09′ low at 87.10, break would extend subsequent weakness to 85.70/80. Only a rise above 92.33 would ‘prolong’ choppy trading above 88.01 and risk stronger retracement of medium term erratic fall from 101.45 to 94.70/80 before prospect of a retreat.

Medium Term USD/CHF Outlook – 1.0231
Despite last month’s resumption of medium term decline to 1.0033, subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low is possibly in place and above 1.0360 would bring a long-overdue correction to 1.0453 but break and needed to yield stronger gain to 1.0700/10. Below 1.0033 would risk one more fall, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep USD above 0.9860/70 before prospect of a strong rebound.

Medium Term AUD/USD Outlook – 0.9043
Aud’s strong retreat from 0.9330 suggests medium term up-move has possibly made a temporary top there and a daily close below 0.8860 would add credence to this view, bring correction to 0.8567 but oversold condition should keep price above support at 0.8239. On the upside, only above 0.8182 signals pullback from aforesaid top has ended and risks re-test of 0.9330 but ‘loss of momentum’ should cap AUD/USD below 0.9630/35.

Medium Term NZD/USD Outlook – 0.7215
Nzd’s sell-off from 0.7635 strongly suggests medium term rise from 0.4895 has made a top and consolidation with downside bias remains for correction to 0.7078 buy oversold condition should keep price above 0.6685. Only above 0.7496 would risk re-test of 0.7635.

Medium Term USD/CAD Outlook – 1.08111
Usd’s rally from 1.0207 suggests medium term fall from 1.3066 has made a low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a correction towards 1.1126 but overbought condition should cap price at 1.1300. Only below 1.0591 defers and risks 1.0370/80.

Medium Term GBP/JPY Outlook – 148.00
Despite sterling’s rebound from 139.74 to 153.23, as top has been formed earlier at 163.06, further consolidation is seen with downside bias and break of said support would yield retrace. to 135.70/80. Only above 160.00 brings re-test of 163.06.

Medium Term EUR/JPY Outlook – 132.80
As euro has fallen sharply from 138.49, suggesting choppy trading inside broad range of 127.00-139.26 would continue and only breach of said support would indicate the rise from ’09 low 112.08 is possibly over, extend weakness to 125.60/70. On the upside, above 134.60/70 would bring rebound towards 136.00 but reckon aforesaid resistance at 138.49 would hold on 1st testing, yield retreat later.

Medium Term EUR/GBP Outlook – 0.8983
As euro has fallen sharply after last month’s rally to 0.9413, suggesting a correction of the rise from 0.8400 (June ’09) is under way and weakness to 0.8830/40 and possibly 0.8705 is seen but said support should hold on 1st testing. Above 0.9060/70 would indicate temporary low is made instead, yield a rebound to 0.9130/40 and then towards 0.9240 but aforesaid top at 0.9413 should remain intact.

Medium Term EUR/CHF Outlook – 1.5104
Although euro has fallen after being capped well below 1.5240, a breach of 1.5073 is and needed for re-test of the lower range of 1.5006-1.5448 and break there would extend weakness to 1.4940/50 and later 1.4900. above1.5240 would prolong choppy trading and yield a rebound to 1.5300/10 but resistance at 1.5382 should hold on 1st testing.